When COVID hit, we had no playbook. We built one anyway.
A framework for defining the type of problem you're actually facing — and why that matters more than the solution.
When COVID-19 hit, I was leading an executive coaching program at a major academic medical center. Within a week, a colleague and I had launched an online crisis coaching program for faculty. We were still learning Zoom as we built the structure. The program worked because we adapted in real time, shaping the format alongside participants as the crisis moved. No playbook. Just responsiveness to what the moment required.
That experience is what I think about when I hear the word VUCA.
Challenging circumstances are a fact of leadership. But these are uniquely challenging times, marked by persistent volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Leadership scholars call this VUCA. And where there is VUCA, there are unusually difficult problems.
A recent talk at an Executive Leadership in Academic Medicine class reminded me that defining the type of problem you’re facing is foundational to navigating it. That framework is worth sharing.
Simple, complicated and complex problems
Few problems that land on a leader’s desk are truly simple. But some are more straightforward than others, and knowing which you’re dealing with matters.
Simple problems have clear pathways, don’t require deep expertise, and produce predictable outcomes. Roasting a turkey: there’s a recipe, the inputs are accessible, and you know when you’ve succeeded.
Complicated problems are larger in scope but still linear. You can unravel them thread by thread. Cause and effect are traceable, solutions are iterative, like building a bridge. Daunting, but solvable with the right expertise and process.
Complex problems are messier. Contributing factors interact in ways that are hard to trace; cause and effect aren’t consistent; and the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Helping a teenager navigate adolescence is a classic example. Every child is different, solutions that work in one situation may backfire in another, and the best you can do is build guardrails that influence the situation rather than solve it outright.
This framework, known as the Cynefin Framework and developed by Snowden and Boone, also includes a fourth type: the chaotic problem. It’s increasingly relevant today.
Wicked problems
Some leaders face what scholars call wicked problems, first described by Rittel and Weber in 1973. These are defined not just by their complexity but by their resistance to definition itself. There’s no agreement on what the problem even is, let alone how to solve it. Solutions can’t be tested in advance, every attempt creates new consequences, and the problem may never be fully resolved. Leaders are called on to act anyway.
How to approach each type
Once you’ve identified what you’re dealing with, the approach becomes clearer.
Complicated problems respond to rational thought, expertise and the right team. Clarify the resources you need, assemble the people who understand the problem best, and start. With the right capacity, you’ll get it done.
Complex and wicked problems require system-level responses. Don’t look for a single solution. Build a system to manage the conditions around the problem. Assemble a team with expertise and agility. Test, refine, adjust in real time. For wicked problems especially, commit to the long game. Think in terms of what achievable success looks like, even when full resolution isn’t on the table.
Your antidote to VUCA
Leadership scholar Bob Johansen developed VUCA Prime, a direct response to each VUCA condition:
Vision counters volatility: a clear direction keeps teams focused when conditions shift.
Understanding counters uncertainty: taking time to grasp the real drivers of a situation disarms it.
Clarity counters complexity: distilling a messy situation into clear direction makes action possible.
Agility counters ambiguity: frameworks that flex quickly keep you from getting stuck.
Leading in a VUCA world
No single model gives leaders everything they need. But a few practices consistently help.
Delegate the simple problems. The more VUCA demands your attention, the less bandwidth you have for everything else. Hire people you trust, then let them handle it.
Build a team that can handle ambiguity. VUCA leadership requires people who think flexibly, ask hard questions, and can tolerate uncertainty without shutting down. Look for varied experience and genuine curiosity.
Protect time for deep work and rest. Complex thinking needs breathing room. The kind VUCA demands happens in quiet, in long walks, in creative pursuits that look nothing like work. Darwin scheduled deep play alongside focused work. Evidence suggests it still works.
Champion resilience across your team. Leading through VUCA is often energizing and, in the end, deeply satisfying. But it’s never easy. Cultures that sustain it prioritize real time off, personal lives that matter, and well-being that isn’t just a talking point.
VUCA isn’t going away. The leaders who thrive in it aren’t the ones who have all the answers. They’re the ones who know how to keep moving without them.
This is one of my most-read posts from the past year, and it’s part of a small collection I’m sharing ahead of the launch of More Than Work, my new newsletter for professionals at every career stage figuring out what comes next. If what you read here resonates, the newsletter is more of this, every week. I’d love to have you on the list.